As the Basque derby heats up at Mendizorrotza Stadium, Alavés faces a crucial clash with Athletic Club. This isn't just any match; it's a regional rivalry that could define Alavés's fight to stay in La Liga. They're sitting 16th, scraping by with 36 points from 33 games, and they've shown some grit lately.
Alavés has mixed results in their last five outings, grabbing wins against Mallorca and Celta Vigo, but stumbling against Real Madrid and drawing with Real Sociedad and Osasuna. That resilience might catch a few off guard. And while they're not setting the world alight, their 38 goals scored suggest they can trouble defenses. Over on the other side, Athletic Club sits comfortably in 10th with 41 points, yet their form's been patchy. They edged past Atlético Madrid and Osasuna, but losses to Villarreal, Getafe, and Girona highlight vulnerabilities.
Don't overlook the head-to-head edge Alavés holds from their only meeting this season back in September, where they snatched a 1-0 win at San Mamés. That result lingers, especially in a derby like this. As for lineups, Alavés might line up in a 4-4-2 with Sivera in goal and players like Aleñá and Blanco in midfield, while Athletic could opt for a 4-2-3-1 featuring Simón between the posts and the dynamic Williams brothers on the flanks. Key figures to watch include Alavés's Lucas Boyé, who's their top scorer despite a hamstring injury sidelining him, and Toni Martínez stepping up. For Athletic, Gorka Guruzeta leads the charge with his scoring prowess, backed by Nico Williams's assists.
But injuries are biting. Alavés will miss suspended defender Facundo Garcés, and Boyé's absence hurts their attack. Athletic isn't immune, with Beñat Prados out due to a cruciate injury. In this relegation scrap for Alavés versus Athletic's mid-table drift, expect a tight, fiery encounter. I reckon Alavés should dig in and make it tough, given their recent draws and that prior victory.
They've got the home advantage and a history of frustrating bigger teams, so I'm leaning towards them holding firm. And while Athletic might push for a win, their defensive lapses could cost them.
Recommended Bets
Bet 1 @2.50 — Alavés double chance (win or draw), based on their head-to-head win and solid home draws lately.
Bet 2 @1.80 — Under 2.5 goals, considering both teams' negative goal differences and recent low-scoring games for Athletic.
Bet 3 @3.00 — Gorka Guruzeta to score anytime, as he's Athletic's top scorer with strong xG numbers.
Odds tend to shorten closer to kickoff — lock in value now.
