Athletic Bilbao are stumbling into this clash with Villarreal, and it's not pretty. They've dropped points in four of their last five La Liga outings, including a gutting 0-1 loss to Real Sociedad just days ago. That string of defeats—against Barcelona, Girona, and Getafe—has them stuck in 11th, with just 38 points from 30 games. And while they snatched a 2-1 win over Real Betis earlier this month, it's been a rare bright spot in an otherwise dreary run.
Villarreal, on the other hand, are buzzing with momentum despite a heavy 1-4 thumping by Barcelona. They're riding a wave of three wins before that slip-up, beating Elche, Real Sociedad, and Girona to solidify their third-place standing on 58 points. That puts them right in the mix for those coveted Champions League spots, something Athletic Bilbao won't be worrying about from mid-table. Their head-to-head history in this season adds fuel; Villarreal edged a 1-0 victory back in September, keeping Bilbao at arm's length.
Injuries could tilt things further. Athletic Bilbao will miss Aitor Paredes, Andoni Gorosabel, and Beñat Prados, which might disrupt their defensive setup. Villarreal aren't immune either, with Thomas Partey, Juan Foyth, Logan Costa, Rafa Marín, and Pau Cabanes sidelined. Still, expect Villarreal's depth to shine through. Looking at the lineups, Bilbao's 4-2-3-1 features stars like Gorka Guruzeta, who's bagged six goals this season, alongside Iñaki Williams and Oihan Sancet. They'll need those players to spark some life.
But Villarreal's attack looks sharper. Georges Mikautadze and Alberto Moleiro have each netted nine goals, with Tajon Buchanan and Nicolas Pépé adding flair on the wings. In their 4-4-2 formation, this squad seems built to exploit Bilbao's weaknesses. I reckon Villarreal should edge this one; they're in better shape and have more to play for.
It's going to be a tense affair at San Mamés, where Bilbao's fans will roar, yet Villarreal's form makes them the team to watch. Expect goals from their key men, given the recent high-scoring games on both sides.
Recommended Bets
Villarreal to win @ 1.80 — They're on a strong run with three wins in five and sit third in the table, while Bilbao's poor form makes this a solid pick.
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.00 — Recent matches show plenty of scoring, like Villarreal's 3-1 and 1-0 wins, and Bilbao's 2-1 victory, suggesting an open game.
Georges Mikautadze to score anytime @ 2.50 — As one of Villarreal's top scorers with nine goals, he's likely to find the net against a leaky Bilbao defense.
Odds tend to shorten closer to kickoff — lock in value now.
